Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
5%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
0xaa5cdb…c083
Analysis
This 7% probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, becomes Iran's leader by the end of 2026. The low probability reflects the Islamic Republic's institutional entrenchment and security apparatus, which would require major political upheaval for an exiled royalist to assume power. Movement in this probability would depend on significant destabilizing events within Iran—such as severe economic collapse, major unrest, military defection, or succession crises within current leadership. The most relevant catalysts would be the outcomes of Iran's internal political conflicts, regional security developments, or unexpected regime transitions that might create power vacuums. Major shifts would likely follow from documented changes in Iran's political or security structure rather than predetermined dates.
- ›Current Islamic Republic institutions and military remain under state control with no credible immediate succession pathway for exiled figures
- ›Reza Pahlavi has limited organizational infrastructure or military support within Iran to enable a leadership transition
- ›Sustained internal instability, economic deterioration, or military fragmentation could theoretically create conditions for alternative leadership, but no such trigger events are currently apparent
- ›Regional military conflicts and foreign policy developments could destabilize Iran's current order, though Pahlavi's positioning as a potential beneficiary remains speculative
- ›Market probability of 7% reflects extreme implausibility rather than zero possibility, consistent with tail-risk pricing in prediction markets
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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