What is the current probability for "Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1291.1% and 15.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Who will be the next the head of state or government of Iran?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (10%) for Reza Pahlavi becoming Iran's head of state/government within 260 days, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1266% annualized yield, suggesting either deep skepticism about regime change or severe illiquidity constraints.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 10/11¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $8,250.49·OI $498,237.33·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH

7-day price83 snapshots · 90 regime

14¢10¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (10%) for Reza Pahlavi becoming Iran's head of state/government within 260 days, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1266% annualized yield, suggesting either deep skepticism about regime change or severe illiquidity constraints. The $501k open interest against just $3.9k daily volume indicates thin liquidity with a notably wide cliff risk index of 9, making this a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced forecast. The realized volatility of 558% and recent 1-cent price decline from 11¢ signal high uncertainty, though the low information arrival rate (0.2/hour) suggests limited breaking news flow on Iranian succession dynamics.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 9¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78IY 1459.8%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1291.1%

IY (No) 15.9%

Adj IY 581%

CRI 9

EE 14.000

LAS 0.10

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1291.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	581%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	14.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 4:34:47 AM

SF edge 15.0¢ yesObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (3)

NO +15¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +6¢thesis — MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat

NO +15¢thesis — DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 4:23:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPAHLAVIHEAD-27JAN-RPAH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →