Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?

The Republican contract at 27¢ implies a heavily Democratic-favored NY-04 seat, yet the extreme 494% implied yield on the Yes side and 855% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty or mispricing despite zero 24-hour volume. The $9,064 open interest is modest for a major House race with 200 days to expiry, and the 4¢ spread combined with a 4.06 vol ratio indicates thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as the election approaches. The high info arrival rate (3.9/h) and neutral regime suggest the market is actively processing new data, though the lack of recent trading volume raises questions about whether this 27¢ price reflects genuine consensus or stale positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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