Will Racing 92 win?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will Racing 92 win?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market displays severe liquidity constraints with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 87¢ spread despite the 50¢ midpoint suggesting balanced odds, indicating minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing.
Analysis
This market displays severe liquidity constraints with zero 24-hour volume and an unusually wide 87¢ spread despite the 50¢ midpoint suggesting balanced odds, indicating minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing. The astronomical implied yield of 2904.4% on both sides reflects the extreme spread rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity, and with only 13 days to expiry and a game scheduled for April 25, 2026, the market appears abandoned or potentially mispriced due to low open interest of just $51.683. The cliff risk index of 1 combined with incomplete resolution language suggests execution or clarity concerns that may be deterring participation.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Racing 92 wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xad4ad7df69c61484bda02b51b42b3fc8f265d3822462e9d40370de9e61192f1d yes 100