Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?

The 61¢ price implies crude will exceed $85 by late June 2026, but the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1066% and vol ratio of 5.72 suggest extreme pricing uncertainty that may not be fully reflected in the current probability. The massive spread (15¢) and anemic 24-hour volume of just $5 against $208.929 open interest indicate severe liquidity constraints, raising concerns about price reliability and execution risk for any meaningful position. With 74 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 4.0/hour, this market appears thinly traded relative to its open interest, making the 315.5% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given the difficulty in actually transacting at posted prices.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

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