Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market displays severe illiquidity with an extreme 88¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $54.768 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions and minimal trading activity.
Analysis
This market displays severe illiquidity with an extreme 88¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume despite $54.768 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions and minimal trading activity. The astronomical implied yields (2790.5% for Yes, 3023.0% for No) indicate severe mispricing or distressed liquidity conditions rather than genuine probability assessment. With only 13 days to the April 25 resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a dead or abandoned market where the 50¢ midpoint should be treated with significant skepticism.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Union Bordeaux Begles wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb2b3a54a0c03f095442d9bd36b214b1cc416ee922fe38cbc8a22f330d30e2d4b yes 100