What is the current probability for "Fuse FDV above $4B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 42¢ (42% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Fuse FDV above $4B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 82.7% and 43.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Fuse FDV above $4B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Fuse FDV above $4B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Fuse FDV above $4B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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42¢

Bid/Ask 4/79¢·Spread 75¢·Vol $0·OI $19·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0xb7dce85aeb00c4dcd5ab976ea6b7bf722a993ca8d9c9fd20963be434b2e4f4d5

7-day price641 snapshots · 3 regime

49¢42¢ current

Apr 2323¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fuse's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fuse will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fuse (https://x.com/fuseenergy) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 82.7%

IY (No) 43.4%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 1478%

VR 13.38

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	82.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	43.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1478%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	13.38	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.57	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

75¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 12:56:46 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb7dce85aeb00c4dcd5ab976ea6b7bf722a993ca8d9c9fd20963be434b2e4f4d5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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