Deportivo Saprissa vs. Guadalupe FC: O/U 4.5

The Over 4.5 contract has collapsed from 45¢ to 35¢ over seven days, now pricing in only a 35% probability of 5+ combined goals despite an extreme 11,448% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of severe illiquidity and potential mispricing with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 57¢ spread. With just 6 days to expiry and only $51.5k open interest, the astronomical yield metrics are largely artifacts of thin liquidity rather than genuine arbitrage opportunities. The 1,384% realized volatility and 2.0 Cliff Risk Index suggest this market may be experiencing resolution uncertainty or data issues rather than reflecting rational betting dynamics on a Liga Promerica matchup.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Liga Promerica game between Deportivo Saprissa and Guadalupe FC, scheduled for April 22 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Deportivo Saprissa and Guadalupe FC combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on unafut.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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