Will Ninjas in Pyjamas qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026?

This is an extremely illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume despite $404k open interest, suggesting positions are locked in with no recent trading activity. The 5¢ price implies only a 5% qualification probability for Ninjas in Pyjamas, yet the asymmetric implied yields (10,553% for Yes vs. 29% for No) and wide 8¢ spread indicate significant uncertainty and potential mispricing. With the tournament beginning June 2 and the market closing June 21, there's cliff risk as qualification details may resolve before market close, making this a speculative position with minimal price discovery.

Resolution rules

The IEM Cologne Major 2026 is scheduled to take place from June 2 to June 21, 2026. This market will resolve according to which teams qualify for IEM Cologne Major 2026.If the listed team officially qualifies as one of the teams invited to IEM Cologne Major 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Ties in standings will be broken according to the official ESL / Valve rules. If IEM Cologne Major 2026 is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or if the official list of IEM Cologne Major 2026 participants is not published before August 1, 2026, ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the ESL website (https://pro.eslgaming.com/tour/cs/cologne/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/Intel_Extreme_Masters/2026/Cologne) may also be used.

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