Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?

The 74¢ price reflects a heavily skewed risk profile, with the No side offering an outsized 166% implied yield versus just 20.5% for Yes, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial execution or definition risk despite the seemingly straightforward $20M FDV threshold. With zero 24-hour volume against $22.9K open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is minimal for a market with 625 days to expiry, indicating limited conviction from traders. The extreme yield asymmetry and neutral regime score suggest uncertainty around whether Betmoar will actually launch a qualifying token or whether the resolution criteria will be contested, making this a speculative bet on both token launch success and market interpretation rather than pure FDV prediction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Betmoar's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Betmoar will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Betmoar (https://x.com/betmoardotfun) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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