Tony Gonzales charged by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Tony Gonzales charged by June 30?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing anomalies with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 59¢ bid-ask spread and extraordinarily high implied yields (451-529%) that suggest severe mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing anomalies with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 59¢ bid-ask spread and extraordinarily high implied yields (451-529%) that suggest severe mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The 1520% realized volatility and 6.73 vol ratio indicate wild historical swings, while the $65.49 open interest and near-zero trading activity make the 57¢ price potentially unreliable for forecasting the actual probability of charges against Representative Gonzales by mid-2026. With 75 days to expiration and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious about treating this quote as meaningful given the illiquidity and extreme volatility metrics.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of U.S. Representative Tony Gonzales between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcedbb121712ed5ec15c65274b3626802905930bd64c0d810401ccc79f9db921b yes 100