Will Toulon win?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Toulon win?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extremely wide 89¢ spread, making the 50¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an extremely wide 89¢ spread, making the 50¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading. The astronomical 2909% implied yield on both sides signals a pricing breakdown rather than genuine market consensus, likely driven by the minimal $57.4k open interest and the market's apparent abandonment by traders. With only 13 days until the April 25 resolution date and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market is approaching expiry with insufficient liquidity to execute meaningful positions.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If Toulon wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd0000f33a97cd9c5d4b5f7ef1b7d0c47eeef9cd60e6a29c8a31717b712becfc8 yes 100