What is the current probability for "Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1437.3% and 2.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Ethereal FDV above $2B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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9¢

Bid/Ask 3/15¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $3,451.236·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0xdb949c29645f4964b6ff22c0f37a6e3c400bb7ec1124bb44b3be8f28d25608d8

7-day price535 snapshots · 3 regime

50¢8¢ current

Apr 91¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1437.3%

IY (No) 2.5%

Adj IY 1437%

CRI 24

RV 5112%

VR 21.77

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1437.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1437%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5112%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	21.77	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:06:28 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 12:53:38 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xdb949c29645f4964b6ff22c0f37a6e3c400bb7ec1124bb44b3be8f28d25608d8 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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