SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026
140-159 is priced at 49¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 46¢ bid, 53¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside How many SpaceX launches in 2026?.
Price history
49¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Outcome
140-159
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
140-159 49¢
Range
1¢-49¢
Family volume
$303K
Identifier
0xdf246fb4...413d
Jun 6, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$44K
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$303K
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 53¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xdf246fb4…413d
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 81¢, -32¢ versus this page.
Event family
How many SpaceX launches in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$303K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
140-159 49¢
Current share
15%
140-159
polymarket · 0xdf246fb418f8f1ab06eab9b1c0e2c6e9bef099f18b8fb74c3eceffbd7410413d
160-179
polymarket · 0x9ca98e91ad1810e7375d0fad4c01dab0ba7001fd9e2391b25569dc0207f508ab
180-199
polymarket · 0x48b60dee314c783580a450b88f35e1ca500fd6a7410f1be6a724615f4f389ef4
120-139
polymarket · 0x29bb6476b63fda2d1324cfb123652c018057e1ba1565e07482e945a24b334816
200 or more
polymarket · 0xec9e92f27a98bc29028aec518993330e7920ac35f40fdea3c51e11d6ddc6acde
<100
polymarket · 0xf89ba0a4af6cf971d1d6eb1b0fca2194ace4dfb3e492821e16a4ed49a365a5a1
100-119
polymarket · 0x4f5db8fe5ebb891aee12d90d8ed36d43f900c5179e8574867853e8c9bb0c7914
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.