Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 35¢ price implies SpaceX will launch 140-159 times in 2026, but the extreme 262.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the risk-adjusted return of 131%, indicating potential value for contrarian bettors.
Analysis
The 35¢ price implies SpaceX will launch 140-159 times in 2026, but the extreme 262.8% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to the risk-adjusted return of 131%, indicating potential value for contrarian bettors. With zero 24-hour volume and $5.7M open interest despite 258 days to expiry, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where the wide 10¢ spread may not reflect true consensus pricing. The flat price movement (34¢ to 35¢ over seven days) and neutral regime suggest the market lacks conviction, making this a speculative position dependent on SpaceX's actual launch cadence materializing significantly above historical rates.
Also on kalshi at 82¢(Δ -47¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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sf trade 0xdf246fb418f8f1ab06eab9b1c0e2c6e9bef099f18b8fb74c3eceffbd7410413d yes 100