How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
Leader sits at 50% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
140-159
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
160-179
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$215
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many SpaceX launches in 2026
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?: 140-159
0xdf246f…413d
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?: 200 or more
0xec9e92…acde
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?: 160-179
0x9ca98e…08ab
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?: 180-199
0x48b60d…9ef4
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?: 120-139
0x29bb64…4816
Analysis
This market estimates a 34% chance that SpaceX will conduct 200 or more launches during 2026. The probability reflects substantial disagreement between exchanges: Kalshi traders price it at 42% while Polymarket traders at 22%, a 20-percentage-point gap suggesting genuine uncertainty about SpaceX's capacity to maintain an accelerated launch cadence. The estimate depends critically on production rates for Falcon 9 rockets, regulatory approval timelines, and customer demand remaining robust. SpaceX completed approximately 67 launches in 2024 and approximately 81 in 2025, so reaching 200 would represent a threefold increase. The resolution will be determined by official SpaceX launch records at year-end 2026, making this primarily a forecast of manufacturing and operational scaling rather than technological breakthrough.
- ›SpaceX's actual 2025 launch count will establish baseline momentum; early 2026 launch cadence (Jan-May data point available now) indicates whether trajectory supports 200+
- ›Falcon 9 first-stage reusability rates and turnaround times directly constrain maximum launches; any degradation in booster availability reduces feasible launch volume
- ›Starshield, government contracts, and constellation deployment demand determine customer backlog; weak demand below 200 launches annually is feasible even with full production capacity
- ›Regulatory or range constraints (FAA licensing, coastal launch window availability) could cap physical launch rate regardless of rocket availability
- ›The 20-point gap between Kalshi (42%) and Polymarket (22%) suggests traders weight near-term cadence data and production ramp assumptions differently
What moved the line
- Jun 4140-159↑4pp44→48¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1140-159↑3pp39→42¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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