200 or more · How many SpaceX launches in 2026
200 or more is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside How many SpaceX launches in 2026?.
Price history
5¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Outcome
200 or more
Rank
#4 of 7
Leader
140-159 52¢
Range
1¢-52¢
Family volume
$303K
Identifier
0xec9e92f2...acde
Jun 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$101K
Family rank
#4 of 7
7 outcomes · How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$303K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xec9e92f2…acde
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 7¢, -2¢ versus this page.
Event family
How many SpaceX launches in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$303K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
140-159 52¢
Current share
33%
140-159
polymarket · 0xdf246fb418f8f1ab06eab9b1c0e2c6e9bef099f18b8fb74c3eceffbd7410413d
160-179
polymarket · 0x9ca98e91ad1810e7375d0fad4c01dab0ba7001fd9e2391b25569dc0207f508ab
180-199
polymarket · 0x48b60dee314c783580a450b88f35e1ca500fd6a7410f1be6a724615f4f389ef4
200 or more
polymarket · 0xec9e92f27a98bc29028aec518993330e7920ac35f40fdea3c51e11d6ddc6acde
120-139
polymarket · 0x29bb6476b63fda2d1324cfb123652c018057e1ba1565e07482e945a24b334816
<100
polymarket · 0xf89ba0a4af6cf971d1d6eb1b0fca2194ace4dfb3e492821e16a4ed49a365a5a1
100-119
polymarket · 0x4f5db8fe5ebb891aee12d90d8ed36d43f900c5179e8574867853e8c9bb0c7914
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.