Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market is pricing in only a 17% probability that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent leaves before end-2026, with the "Yes" side offering an extreme 690.9% implied yield—a significant arbitrage signal suggesting either severe underpricing of departure risk or illiquidity-driven distortion. Zero 24-hour volume combined with a $10k open interest and 3¢ spread indicates this is a thin, illiquid market where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus, particularly given the 258-day timeframe provides ample opportunity for political turnover. The neutral regime score and modest 1¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market lacks conviction, making this more of a liquidity play than a confident prediction on Bessent's tenure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade