Club Tijuana vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 2.5

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Club Tijuana vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 2.5. This contract trades at 55¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $118k open interest, suggesting trapped positions and potential resolution risk given the 6-day expiry and match scheduled for April 22.

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55¢
Bid/Ask 54/56¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $41.624·OI $18,047.931·Closes Apr 23, 2026·0d remaining
0xe59af4fccc698b57bac43f4af929bfb20fdf1e03db0d492eaac7d1d0af3fc64a
7-day price30 snapshots · 5 regime
62¢55¢ current
Apr 1452¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $118k open interest, suggesting trapped positions and potential resolution risk given the 6-day expiry and match scheduled for April 22. The astronomical implied yields (5251% for Yes, 7236% for No) reflect the pricing disconnect rather than genuine opportunity—the 4¢ spread is deceptively wide relative to the tiny notional amounts likely tradeable at these prices. The sharp 8¢ price decline over 7 days combined with 123% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicates this is a dead or mispriced market where execution risk far outweighs directional conviction.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Liga MX game between Club Tijuana and CF Pachuca, scheduled for April 22 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Club Tijuana and CF Pachuca combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Adj IY 50000%
CRI 1
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (3)
IndicatorValue
Adj IY50000%
CRI1
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 3:39:24 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 3:38:24 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xe59af4fccc698b57bac43f4af929bfb20fdf1e03db0d492eaac7d1d0af3fc64a yes 100

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