Will the match end in a draw?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will the match end in a draw?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 2, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite $142k open interest and a massive 9¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting severe illiquidity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite $142k open interest and a massive 9¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting severe illiquidity. The 8¢ price implies only an 8% draw probability, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 33,401% is nonsensical—a mathematical artifact of pricing near zero that indicates the market has likely become stale or mispriced. With just 13 days to the April 25 resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 12 (elevated), this appears to be a dead or abandoned position where traders are trapped with no viable exit.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xe6d5ce13c12a600c459cc5f91b4f45647cd47fae2a2cc9b0f49476610677ff4f yes 100