Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03?

The 23¢ price reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile, with the Yes side offering a 1,121% annualized yield compared to just 100% for No, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about Hennrich's path to the general election in Washington's 3rd district. With zero 24-hour volume despite $5.2M open interest and a wide 21¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 400% realized volatility and 109 days to resolution indicate this market remains highly speculative and subject to significant repricing as the August 2026 primary approaches and more candidate information emerges.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

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