Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat?

This NV-03 market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $1.7M, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 13¢ spread suggesting thin order books. The 498.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 198-day time horizon, indicating either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for the risk of holding this illiquid position. The realized volatility of 2276% and recent price swing from 22¢ to 27¢ over seven days, combined with a high info arrival rate of 3.5/hour, suggests this market is highly sensitive to campaign developments in what appears to be a competitive Democratic-leaning district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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