Pacifica FDV above $2B one day after launch?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2678% implied yield on the Yes side against just 7.4% on the No side, yet has zero 24-hour volume and a thin 1¢ spread, suggesting the 5¢ price may not reflect genuine conviction. The realized volatility of 3667% and cliff risk index of 19 indicate this is a highly speculative binary event with significant tail risk, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest the market hasn't yet priced in material new information about Pacifica's launch prospects. With 259 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 3.0/hour, the illiquidity ($8,996 open interest) combined with extreme yield skew warrants caution—this could represent either mispricing or a genuine consensus that a $2B+ FDV within one day is highly unlikely.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Pacifica's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Pacifica (https://x.com/pacifica_fi) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Regime

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