100kt meteor strike in 2026
100kt meteor strike in 2026 is priced at 10¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
10¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Outcome
100kt meteor strike in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
0x4d7e157d...9cb4
May 26, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x4d7e157d…9cb4
Event family
100kt meteor strike in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
100kt meteor strike in 2026 10¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.