Rodrigo Mora · World Cup: Player to make Portugal Squad
Rodrigo Mora is priced at 49¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 98¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside World Cup: Player to make Portugal Squad.
Price history
49¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Rodrigo Mora
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
Ricardo Horta 50¢
Range
0¢-50¢
Family volume
$380K
Identifier
0x746b0632...b83a
May 28, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
98¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · World Cup: Player to make Portugal Squad
Closes
—
Family volume
$380K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the listed player cannot be confirmed as a part of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
—
Identifier
0x746b0632…b83a
Event family
World Cup: Player to make Portugal Squad.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$380K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Ricardo Horta 50¢
Current share
0%
Ricardo Horta
polymarket · 0xfedba37972afe5187ae38e8572d3dc356ce35a40040ad131891594d190202506
Rodrigo Mora
polymarket · 0x746b0632807c3ecdea2d2effd0be7b5947e54ef749464b746fdf51e585b1b83a
António Silva
polymarket · 0x3b9c63840cc0e18a5142d73184815cf1e7b04227c9076539d50e8ec4a816328d
Pedro Gonçalves
polymarket · 0x5ae3f4083c272d5e1849fa5dd320f6716a1e0518957f440c9c955ece276695ab
Mateus Fernandes
polymarket · 0xcf8615e1dcbacc87eb264ea62526d7137945b9dfb305eebd4ab20982b097c0a6
André Silva
polymarket · 0x04e28f14dfb41fc670ecae9e73d3533a79367f6bf2d80200a2121b76b5f52c0d
Bruma
polymarket · 0xbf511f9b52a61b465e0bd6e075f9bdce9c520ce25a743c28f08de273ee25661f
Pepe
polymarket · 0xc0a3218acbbaa885ef983e23f09bd627c44e1b1daaf2311f598aa96b522ea0b3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.