2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year
The Fate of Ophelia is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 91¢ bid, 95¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year.
Price history
96¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If The Fate of Ophelia has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
The Fate of Ophelia
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
The Fate of Ophelia 91¢
Range
17¢-91¢
Family volume
$5
Identifier
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-FAT
Jun 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
91¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$190
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · 2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
Family volume
$5
Orderbook snapshot
91 / 95¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If The Fate of Ophelia has been nominated for Record of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
Identifier
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-FAT
Event family
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5
Outcomes
6
Highest price
The Fate of Ophelia 91¢
Current share
0%
The Fate of Ophelia
kalshi · KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-FAT
I Just Might
kalshi · KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-IJU
Man I Need
kalshi · KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-MAN
Choosin' Texas
kalshi · KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-CHO
Aperture
kalshi · KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-APE
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
kalshi · KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-SOE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.