Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 17 contracts. Kalshi at 45%, Polymarket at 35% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
12 contracts
Polymarket
35%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
17 contracts
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
512 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 45¢ · Polymarket 35¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (35¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (45¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 23% of their title tokens — “2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year” vs “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Choosin' Texas
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-CHO
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: So Easy (To Fall In Love)
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-SOE
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Aperture
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-APE
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: I Just Might
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-IJU
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Man I Need
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-MAN
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: The Fate of Ophelia
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-FAT
Cluster 2
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 1
0xe67f4d…33bb
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 6 or lower
0x284c11…678e
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 4
0x6c8a44…2562
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 2
0x376f0a…1aeb
Cluster 3
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record
Cluster 4
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
0x37402c…6cf2
Cluster 5
Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
Cluster 6
Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
Cluster 7
Will Eminem be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
Cluster 8
Will BTS be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 5Man I Need↓46pp79→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5The Fate of Ophelia↓42pp88→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Aperture↓33pp51→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Choosin' Texas↓29pp77→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?↓7pp88→81¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in climate
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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