Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
12 contracts
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
466 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: So Easy (To Fall In Love)
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-SOE
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Choosin' Texas
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-CHO
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Aperture
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-APE
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: I Just Might
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-IJU
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: Man I Need
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-MAN
2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year?: The Fate of Ophelia
KXGRAMMYNOMROTY-69-FAT
Cluster 2
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record
Cluster 3
Will Taylor Swift be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
Cluster 4
Will Ariana Grande be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
Cluster 5
Will Eminem be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
Cluster 6
Will BTS be #1 on the IFPI's Biggest-Selling Global Recording Artist of the Year in 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 21Hottest↑10pp29→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Hottest↑7pp22→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Hottest↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 16Hottest↓4pp23→19¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
- Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 22, 2026last 37% · 6d
- Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026last 31% · 6d
- Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026last 35% · 6d
- Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026last 27% · 6d
- Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026last 38% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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