2026 Grammy nominees for Record of the Year

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that 'The Fate of Ophelia' will be nominated for a 2026 Grammy Award in the Record of the Year category. At 92%, the market is pricing in high confidence, though the 6-point gap to the runner-up suggests meaningful uncertainty remains. The current price is driven by the song's recent chart performance and critical reception, with traders weighing factors like streaming data, radio play, and historical precedent for similar releases. The Grammy nomination announcement, scheduled for November 2026, will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, shifts in streaming metrics, awards-season buzz, and competing releases could move the probability. High trading volume on this contract ($83 in 24 hours) indicates active reassessment among traders tracking early indicators of Grammy consideration.

• ›'The Fate of Ophelia' has accumulated substantial streaming and radio metrics relative to other potential nominees in its eligibility window
• ›A 6-point differential to the runner-up indicates the market does not view nomination as certain despite the 92% price
• ›Grammy nomination ballots rely on voter familiarity and eligibility compliance; ineligibility issues or voter unfamiliarity would sharply lower probability
• ›Chart performance and critical reviews from industry publications historically correlate with nomination likelihood but do not guarantee selection
• ›November 2026 Grammy nomination announcement will produce full resolution; no intermediate data release significantly updates this forecast

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds