2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant
Maison Bar à Vins is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 11 inside 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant.
Price history
14¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If Maison Bar à Vins has won Best New Restaurant at the 36th James Beard Restaurant and Chef Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Maison Bar à Vins
Rank
#3 of 11
Leader
Anjin 13¢
Range
2¢-13¢
Family volume
$665
Identifier
KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-MAI
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$69
Family rank
#3 of 11
11 outcomes · 2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant
Closes
Jun 16, 2027
Family volume
$665
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Maison Bar à Vins has won Best New Restaurant at the 36th James Beard Restaurant and Chef Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 16, 2027
Identifier
KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-MAI
Event family
2026 James Beard Award for Best New Restaurant.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$665
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Anjin 13¢
Current share
10%
Anjin
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-ANJ
Tamba
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-TAM
Maison Bar à Vins
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-MAI
Lei
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-LEI
Ki
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-KI
Robin
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-ROB
1033 Omakase
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-103
Merci
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-MER
Emmett
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-EMM
Agnes and Sherman
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-AGN
Tie
kalshi · KXJAMESBEARD-36-BNR-TIE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.