3.2% · 2026 World GDP Growth
3.2% is priced at 32¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 54¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside 2026 World GDP Growth.
Price history
32¢ current
+26¢Contract brief
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Outcome
3.2%
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
≤2.9% 48¢
Range
4¢-48¢
Family volume
$18K
Identifier
0x6219e017...b7ea
Jun 5, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
54¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · 2026 World GDP Growth
Closes
Jan 15, 2027
Family volume
$18K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 15, 2027
Identifier
0x6219e017…b7ea
Event family
2026 World GDP Growth.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$18K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
≤2.9% 48¢
Current share
10%
≤2.9%
polymarket · 0xa3833fb4962f96f7232768080bdd927746ac897d4bfa5f9a0ffbac9c05be7be5
3.0%
polymarket · 0x1bc6c0e52f07a573a64c0a095af33930e5ac0f065a056b1e586f5eb7887f3531
3.2%
polymarket · 0x6219e01740da1e4b0b67c32692f2f33b47b283a3b720aeb6d8dbb48a33bfb7ea
3.1%
polymarket · 0x2eb19e745505204f889ddd1293d213e4a28a579110b2cfd8e1e809b050b47545
3.3%
polymarket · 0xb8e453f1147b9ed4b0303476ca53d065137dee9ab0286e9b281e1c9eb1e3b627
3.4%
polymarket · 0xe910586ba1cd1e15f7c65d55080d97044721858480db1869763437a138389b08
3.5%
polymarket · 0xf13d1fedd21e7f89da9efbea3351d6a7f538d0abc2fcba8743aeefa7c8a24572
3.7%+
polymarket · 0x0681f7b9342125d3cf45f3afcfcff5c37c78563038444f511bd29a1d138b9a72
3.6%
polymarket · 0x082a94135166ca7d0b4946669e9b4f79302438e5c712e8d6e75e67d5a76f85e1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.