2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market on Matt Damon's 2027 Oscar nomination has declined 3 cents over the past week to 49¢, suggesting modest deterioration in his nomination odds despite the contract still having nearly two years until expiry.
Analysis
This market on Matt Damon's 2027 Oscar nomination has declined 3 cents over the past week to 49¢, suggesting modest deterioration in his nomination odds despite the contract still having nearly two years until expiry. The 60.9% annualized yield on the Yes side appears attractive but is substantially inflated by the long time horizon, with the risk-adjusted yield of only 30% providing a more realistic return expectation. Liquidity is thin at $72.34 in 24-hour volume against $1,894.39 open interest, and the 5¢ spread indicates limited market depth for a contract this far out.
Resolution rules
If Matt Damon has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-MAT yes 100