2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Matt Damon will receive a Best Actor Oscar nomination for the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony (honoring 2026 films). At 80 cents, the contract reflects substantial trader confidence in his nomination, though not overwhelming certainty. The probability is primarily shaped by his upcoming film releases and their critical reception—major festival selections or strong reviews would likely increase the odds, while poor box-office or critical performance could reduce them. The key catalyst will be the official Oscar nomination announcement in early 2027, though the months leading up to it will see significant movement as year-end films premiere, award season competitions (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG Awards) conclude, and industry sentiment crystallizes. Notably, Ryan Gosling's contract trades at 59 cents, indicating market uncertainty about whether multiple major actors will secure nominations in what remains an unpredictable selection process.

• ›Matt Damon has 2-3 significant film releases planned for 2026; their festival selection, critical reviews, and box-office performance will directly influence nomination likelihood
• ›Ryan Gosling's lower contract price (59 cents) suggests traders view his nomination odds as materially worse, creating meaningful differentiation in a field where multiple actors could theoretically qualify
• ›The SAG Awards and BAFTA nominations, typically announced in January 2027, serve as strong leading indicators for Oscar nominations and will likely cause substantial price movement
• ›Academy voting is influenced by recent high-profile roles and industry recognition; performance at other major ceremonies (Golden Globes in January) will significantly impact perception
• ›Historical nomination patterns show that major stars receive nominations roughly 60-85% of the time when positioning themselves for awards season, providing a baseline for evaluating individual odds

What moved the line

• Jul 16Matt Damon↑7pp78→85¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Jaafar Jackson↓7pp23→16¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Ryan Gosling↑7pp52→59¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Andrew Scott↓7pp38→31¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 22Ryan Gosling↓6pp62→56¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds