Marine Le Pen · 2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate
Marine Le Pen is priced at 30¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 17¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 26¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside 2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate.
Price history
30¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election. A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Marine Le Pen
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Jordan Bardella 67¢
Range
4¢-67¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
0xd1271b5c...da9e
May 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
17¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
26¢
24h volume
$9
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · 2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
17 / 43¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election. A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
Identifier
0xd1271b5c…da9e
Event family
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Jordan Bardella 67¢
Current share
26%
Jordan Bardella
polymarket · 0x41caad92e4885a7b28b8487cae926ae2de0705a39e885fa328beb45dd74599da
Marine Le Pen
polymarket · 0xd1271b5ccea9be296cead24eb97e0402424a3eac997e94e2f9c49154cc54da9e
Multiple Candidates
polymarket · 0xd11d1a415dc74be7aafa92a83cd64d47956e2e34092872378292f3db155b3178
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.