2027 French Presidential Election
Leader sits at 65% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
National Rally Candidate: Jordan Bardella
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
National Rally Candidate: Ma
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$211
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
330 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate: Jordan Bardella
0x41caad…99da
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate: Marine Le Pen
0xd1271b…da9e
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate: Multiple Candidates
0xd11d1a…3178
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Jordan Bardella, the National Rally's candidate, will win the 2027 French presidential election. At 72%, this represents strong confidence but not certainty—there is roughly a one-in-four chance a different candidate prevails. The current level reflects Bardella's leading position in recent polls and the National Rally's sustained electoral strength, though French voters have historically surprised analysts. The main factors driving this probability are Bardella's consistent polling lead and the fragmentation of center-left opposition, balanced against uncertainty about voter coalition-building and potential tactical voting in runoffs. The election itself in April 2027 will ultimately resolve this contract, but interim polling releases and campaign developments over the coming months will shift market expectations.
- ›Bardella's polling average relative to other National Rally candidates and rivals in early 2026; a sustained 15+ point lead would support higher probability, while narrowing would suggest repricing lower
- ›Volume and structure of the three contracts: Bardella's 72¢ price reflects relative trader conviction, but low aggregate volume ($41 24h on the leading contract) means large orders could move the price significantly
- ›The 'Multiple Candidates' contract at 4¢ indicates low probability the National Rally fields more than one candidate, suggesting internal party consensus around Bardella as the sole nominee
- ›Polling of runoff scenarios: whether Bardella maintains leads in two-candidate matchups against center-left, center-right, and other credible opponents in hypothetical final rounds
- ›Historical French election volatility: the 2017 and 2022 elections both saw late-stage shifts and low primary turnout affecting candidate viability; markets may be underweighting tail-scenario risks
What moved the line
- May 23National Rally Candidate: Jordan Bardella↑17pp57→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 25National Rally Candidate: Jordan Bardella↓12pp71→59¢ · Polymarket
- May 22National Rally Candidate: Jordan Bardella↓11pp68→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 26National Rally Candidate: Jordan Bardella↑9pp59→68¢ · Polymarket
- May 24National Rally Candidate: Marine Le Pen↓6pp26→20¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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