This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official security agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the governments of Israel and Syria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to agreements which directly address border security and demarcation, normalization, or diplomatic recognition or otherwise creates a formalized security framework between the two states. Ceasefire announcements or other announced de-escalations such as those relating to the July 16-18 skirmishes with the Druze, or any other future military engagements, which do not address the broader security relationship will not qualify. Only deals which are officially announced will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a formalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the Israeli and Syrian governments. However, an agreement which is announced by only of the parties will qualify if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that such a formal agreement has been reached.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
CurrentJune 30 | 27.5% |
March 31 | 9.5% |
December 31 | 0.0% |
November 30 |
0.0% |
January 31 | 0.0% |
September 30 | 0.0% |
October 31 | 0.0% |
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