If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
December 31 | 19.5% |
CurrentJanuary 31 | 5.9% |
June 30 | 0.0% |
March 31 | 0.0% |