General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Prosperity | 97.0% |
NaMA | 1.6% |
GPDP | 0.3% |
0.1% |
Party Z | 0.0% |
Party V | 0.0% |
Party W | 0.0% |
Party X | 0.0% |
Party Y | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Party A | 0.0% |
Party B | 0.0% |
Party C | 0.0% |
Party D | 0.0% |
Party E | 0.0% |
Party F | 0.0% |
Party G | 0.0% |
Party H | 0.0% |
Party I | 0.0% |
CurrentParty K | 0.0% |
Party L | 0.0% |
Party M | 0.0% |
Party N | 0.0% |
Party O | 0.0% |
Party P | 0.0% |
Party Q | 0.0% |
Party R | 0.0% |
Party S | 0.0% |
Party T | 0.0% |
Party U | 0.0% |
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| 98.0% |
| $1,984 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 3.0% | $2,169 | Trade |
Kalshi | 1.0% | $1,323 | Trade |
Kalshi | 50.0% | $0 | Trade |