This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Spain | 15.5% |
England | 13.5% |
France | 12.5% |
Argentina | 10.5% |
Brazil | 9.5% |
Portugal | 8.0% |
Germany | 6.3% |
Netherlands | 3.3% |
Norway | 2.6% |
Morocco | 2.1% |
Italy | 1.9% |
Colombia | 1.7% |
Belgium | 1.7% |
USA | 1.6% |
Japan | 1.5% |
Croatia | 1.1% |
Uruguay | 1.1% |
Mexico | 0.9% |
Switzerland | 0.9% |
Ecuador | 0.8% |
Austria | 0.5% |
Senegal | 0.5% |
Canada | 0.4% |
Egypt | 0.4% |
Scotland | 0.4% |
Paraguay | 0.4% |
South Korea | 0.4% |
Ivory Coast | 0.4% |
Australia | 0.3% |
Tunisia | 0.3% |
Iran | 0.3% |
Ghana | 0.3% |
Algeria | 0.3% |
CurrentQatar | 0.1% |
Cape Verde | 0.1% |
South Africa | 0.1% |
Curaçao | 0.1% |
Haiti | 0.1% |
New Zealand | 0.1% |
Saudi Arabia | 0.1% |
Uzbekistan | 0.1% |
Jordan | 0.1% |
Team Z | 0.0% |
Team AO | 0.0% |
Team AM | 0.0% |
Team AL | 0.0% |
Team AK | 0.0% |
Team AJ | 0.0% |
Team AN | 0.0% |
Team AI | 0.0% |
Team AH | 0.0% |
Team AG | 0.0% |
Team AF | 0.0% |
Team AE | 0.0% |
Team AD | 0.0% |
Team AC | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Team AB | 0.0% |
Team AA | 0.0% |
Peru | 0.0% |