This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Kari Lake | 45.4% |
Joseph Chaplik | 32.3% |
Matt Gress | 31.4% |
Gina Swoboda | 22.5% |
Mark Brnovich | 8.3% |
Todd Graham | 7.8% |
CurrentMuchelle Ugenti-Rita | 3.4% |
Candidate O | 0.0% |
Candidate G | 0.0% |
Candidate H | 0.0% |
Candidate J | 0.0% |
Candidate K | 0.0% |
Candidate L | 0.0% |
Candidate M | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Candidate B | 0.0% |
Candidate C | 0.0% |
Candidate D | 0.0% |
Candidate E | 0.0% |
Candidate F | 0.0% |
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