This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from December 9 12:00 PM ET to December 16, 2025 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
300-319 | 0.1% |
380-399 | 0.1% |
400-419 | 0.1% |
Current420-439 | 0.1% |
440-459 | 0.1% |
<20 | 0.0% |
60-79 | 0.0% |
80-99 | 0.0% |
140-159 | 0.0% |
160-179 | 0.0% |
200-219 | 0.0% |
240-259 | 0.0% |
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