This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 special election, scheduled for April 16, 2026. The Democratic primary will take place on February 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Tom Malinowski | 76.0% |
Brendan Gill | 16.0% |
Cammie Croft | 1.1% |
Marc Chaaban | 1.0% |
Zach Beecher | 1.0% |
Justin Strickland | 1.0% |
Jeff Grayzel | 0.9% |
John Bartlett | 0.3% |
Other | 0.0% |
Candidate H | 0.0% |
Candidate I | 0.0% |
Candidate J | 0.0% |
Candidate K | 0.0% |
Candidate L | 0.0% |
Candidate M | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Candidate O | 0.0% |
Candidate A | 0.0% |
Candidate B | 0.0% |
CurrentCandidate C | 0.0% |
Candidate D | 0.0% |
Candidate E | 0.0% |
Candidate F | 0.0% |
Candidate G | 0.0% |
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| 58.0% |
| $23,091 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 93.0% | $16,238 | Trade |