This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Dan Bongino | 100.0% |
Pam Bondi | 58.0% |
Kash Patel | 52.5% |
Kristi Noem | 50.5% |
David Sacks | 42.5% |
Dan Scavino | 42.0% |
John Ratcliffe | 41.0% |
Susie Wiles | 40.5% |
Karoline Leavitt | 38.5% |
Tulsi Gabbard | 37.0% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 33.0% |
Pete Hegseth | 30.5% |
Tom Homan | 25.0% |
Howard Lutnick | 22.5% |
Stephen Miller | 22.0% |
Marco Rubio | 20.5% |
Russell Vought | 19.5% |
CurrentScott Bessent | 18.0% |
Lee Zeldin | 16.0% |
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