During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes between 1,250,000 (inclusive) and 1,500,000 (exclusive) non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
250-500k | 88.1% |
<250k | 3.7% |
750k-1m | 2.2% |
500-750k | 1.5% |
2m+ | 1.1% |
1-1.25m | 0.5% |
1.75-2m | 0.5% |
Current1.25-1.5m | 0.5% |
1.5-1.75m | 0.3% |