First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos” If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Consider buying on Kalshi at lower price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Current44%+ | 89.5% |
42-44% | 3.8% |
38-40% | 3.4% |
36-38% |
<34% | 2.4% |
34-36% | 0.8% |
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