Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Senate. If voting in the Colombian Senate election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Pacto Histórico (PH) | 50.5% |
Centro Democrático (CD) | 29.5% |
Partido Conservador Colombiano (PCC) | 7.0% |
Alianza Verde / Coalición Centro Esperanza (AV/CCE) |
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) | 4.2% |
Cambio Radical (CR) | 0.8% |
Movimiento Alternativo Indígena y Social (MAIS) | 0.3% |
Liga de Gobernantes Anticorrupción (LIGA) | 0.3% |
Partido de la U – Partido de la Unión por la Gente (U) | 0.2% |
Colombia Justa Libres – MIRA (CJL/MIRA) | 0.2% |
Autoridades Indígenas de Colombia (AICO) | 0.2% |
Comunes (COM) | 0.1% |
Other | 0.0% |
Party A | 0.0% |
Party B | 0.0% |
Party C | 0.0% |
CurrentParty D | 0.0% |
Party E | 0.0% |
Party F | 0.0% |
Party G | 0.0% |
Party H | 0.0% |
Party I | 0.0% |
Party J | 0.0% |
Party K | 0.0% |
Party L | 0.0% |
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