This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Consider buying on Kalshi at lower price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
CurrentOpenAI | 53.0% |
Anthropic | 27.0% |
Google | 10.5% |
DeepSeek |
xAI | 3.6% |
Alibaba | 2.2% |
Mistral | 0.7% |
Z.ai | 0.4% |
Moonshot | 0.3% |
Other | 0.0% |
Company A | 0.0% |
Company B | 0.0% |
Company C | 0.0% |
Company D | 0.0% |
Company E | 0.0% |
Company F | 0.0% |
Company G | 0.0% |
Company H | 0.0% |
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| 1.0% |
| $17,733 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 1.0% | $12,580 | Trade |