If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Switzerland | 98.0% |
China | 94.6% |
France | 92.0% |
United Kingdom | 81.5% |
Turkey | 81.0% |
Israel | 69.0% |
Germany | 65.5% |
Saudi Arabia | 57.5% |
India | 56.0% |
Japan | 53.5% |
Italy | 52.5% |
Mexico | 40.0% |
South Korea | 39.0% |
Canada | 31.0% |
Oman | 29.0% |
Ukraine | 27.0% |
North Korea | 24.5% |
Russia | 23.0% |
CurrentBelarus | 12.5% |
Syria | 8.5% |
Taiwan | 7.0% |
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| 12.0% |
| $66,760 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 1.0% | $18,659 | Trade |
Kalshi | 14.0% | $45,725 | Trade |
Kalshi | 17.0% | $44,056 | Trade |