This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini 3 model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Current40%+ | 43.0% |
60%+ | 4.3% |
70%+ | 2.6% |