The first round of the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage in the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, calculated as the total number of votes received (“votos recibidos”) divided by the total electorate (“electorado”). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Costa Rica Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
55-58% | 22.0% |
58-60% | 21.5% |
62-64% | 20.0% |
64-66% | 7.3% |
66-68% | 6.5% |
70-72% | 4.3% |
Current68-70% | 3.7% |
72%+ | 1.0% |