Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Fernando Dias da Costa | 9.5% |
João Bernardo Vieira | 3.9% |
Mário da Silva Júnior | 2.1% |
Umaro Sissoco Embaló | 1.8% |
Siga Batista | 1.6% |
Honório Augusto Lopes | 1.4% |
Gabriel Fernando Indi | 0.8% |
João de Deus Mendes | 0.5% |
Herculano Armando Bequinsa | 0.3% |
Other | 0.0% |
Candidate P | 0.0% |
Candidate Q | 0.0% |
Candidate R | 0.0% |
Candidate S | 0.0% |
Candidate T | 0.0% |
Candidate W | 0.0% |
Candidate X | 0.0% |
Candidate Y | 0.0% |
Candidate Z | 0.0% |
Candidate B | 0.0% |
Candidate C | 0.0% |
CurrentCandidate D | 0.0% |
Candidate F | 0.0% |
Candidate G | 0.0% |
Candidate H | 0.0% |
Candidate I | 0.0% |
Candidate K | 0.0% |
Candidate N | 0.0% |
Candidate O | 0.0% |