This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances." If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Consider buying on Kalshi at lower price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
CurrentCDA | 97.5% |
D66 | 96.4% |
VVD | 95.2% |
50+ |
JA21 | 5.9% |
CU | 4.7% |
Denk | 4.4% |
GL/PvdA | 4.0% |
SP | 3.3% |
PvdD | 3.0% |
FvD | 2.9% |
SGP | 2.9% |
Volt | 2.4% |
PVV | 2.3% |
BBB | 1.9% |
NSC | 1.0% |
Found 3 similar markets on other platforms.
| 50.0% |
| $0 |
| Trade |
Kalshi | 50.0% | $0 | Trade |